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Prepare a 3-5 page report (excluding the cover page, the reference page, and any tables and graphs), which describes the use of one of the Time Series Models in forecasting. You need to collect your own data either from the web or from a company that you are familiar with. Identify a dependent variable for your forecast, and then identify the appropriate independent variables that may contribute to your forecast. Select an appropriate Times Series Model and provide a rational for your choice. Run the model and comment on your predictions. You may use your model to predict the last period dependent variable in your data and compare it with your actual data for the last period to test the accuracy of your prediction. What are the other parameters or coefficients that will tell you the accuracy of your prediction? What are the factors that may hinder the accuracy of your prediction? What recommendation(s) can you make based on your forecast?
Hint: A word document with written description of assignment work will not receive any credits. The work must be supported by all the original details of your work on excel. Be sure to copy and paste your excel outcomes as part of your paper flow. You also must attach your Excel file with Worksheet details, to receive credits for statistical analysis. Finally, present your raw data, and excel output tables and graphs to illustrate how well your regression may fit into the actual series. You do need to analyze your own data, show output results, and discuss them in your paper.
Here are two links you may use to get the data: the Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Other sources are welcome as well.
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