MIS775 : Decision Modelling for Business Analytics – Simulation of Technology Project Selection – Business Assignment Help

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Assignment Task :
Description 
This assignment is designed to let you explore a simulation approach to choosing a set of projects to invest  in, and then write up your findings in a technical report.  
As explained in Assessment Task 1, Acme Group Inc. is a multinational strategy consultancy with global  headquarters in Melbourne, Australia. The company offers strategic solutions to its clients and has an annual  revenue of $500M. In order to maintain their competitive position in the marketplace Acme Group needs to  continually look for opportunities to invest in new technologies. The Chief Information Officer, Jane Porter, is  currently considering twelve technology proposals put forth by three divisions within the Group – Marketing,  R&D, and HR.  
Each division has provided Jane with the capital expenditures required for each project over the next three  years and the expected revenue to be generated by each project, but this time a number of the proposals are  for joint projects. These joint projects are intended to be undertaken with partner organisations that Acme  Group already has well-established strategic alliances.  
Each division has provided Jane with the capital expenditures required for each project over the next three  years and, based on the expected revenue to be generated by each project, the NPV of each project as shown  below, and the ownership %. 
Division
*The capital expenditures and NPV for each project are subject to the ownership %. For example, should project 5 be funded, capital  expenditures for the Acme Group will amount to 75% of the stated figures, or $1.5M, $3.0M, and $6.0M over the three years, for an NPV of $1.65M. The other quarter of the expenditures will be funded by a strategic ally, which will be entitled to quarter of the stated  NPV. By contrast, the Acme Group will provide 100% of the required capital expenditures for project 1, for a NPV of $0.6M. 
As before, Jane has an overall three-year budget of $100 million for the set of projects she approves, with a  maximum of $40 million available in any one year. 
Jane has decided to dispense with the idea of scalability. If she decides to invest in a project, then it will be  to the full extent of the company’s ownership percentage. 
Jane has now tasked you with developing a spreadsheet?based decision model that she can use to explore the twelve investment alternatives and their associated risks.  
As a starting point, she wants you to develop a spreadsheet model using the Deterministic model worksheet  provided in the assignment spreadsheet. This worksheet has four sections: Inputs, Decisions, Calculated  values, and Summary values and Outputs. 
Jane wants the spreadsheet to automatically update all tables and results each time she the enters 0s and 1s  in cells O26:O37. In that way, so can see the results for any set of projects that she wants to consider funding. 
The information that Jane is particularly interested in is the following: 
1. Number of projects undertaken in each division 
2. Capital expenditures ($M) – company wide and by division. Jane also wants to see the calculated  values in cells P26:AA37 in case she needs to see a full breakdown of capital expenditure. 
3. Whether any expenditure limits are exceeded. 
4. Table of ROI by project. Jane prefers to compare percentages rather than absolute numbers. For this  reason, she wants you to divide each of the project NPVs through by the total capital expenditure for  each project and report the ROI percentage. 
When you have completed the deterministic decision model, Jane wants you to use this as the basis for  developing a spreadsheet-based stochastic decision model in the other worksheet. 
In this Stochastic model worksheet, she wants you to apply triangular distributions to each capital expenditure  and to each NPV. 
Jane wants you to treat all of the capital expenditures in the page 1 table as the most likely values. Jane then  wants you to set the minimum and maximum values at 15% below and 30% above the most likely values, to  counter the common bias of under-estimating costs.
 
Specific Requirements  
Your submission will be assessed across these six sections for a total unit mark of 30%: 
Section 1: Model description, conceptual model, and assumptions (File: PowerPoint report; 5 marks) • Provide a brief overview of the model 
• Include a conceptual model 
• Note any relevant assumptions. 
Section 2: Spreadsheet-based deterministic decision model (Files: PowerPoint report & Excel; 
Complete all parts of the spreadsheet-based deterministic decision model. All cells displaying calculated  values, summary values and output values must contain the underlying Excel formulas. 
Section 3: Scenario analysis (Files: PowerPoint report & Excel;  
This section relates to Topic 7. Use Excel’s scenario analysis to investigate the impact that best and worst scenarios, for both capital expenditure and NPV, have on the summary values and output values. The choice  of best and worst scenarios is yours. 
Section 4: Spreadsheet-based stochastic decision model including justification for the choice of  distribution (Files: PowerPoint report & Excel; 
This section relates to Topic 8. Complete all parts of the spreadsheet-based stochastic decision model.  Justify the choice of probability distribution.  
Section 5: Simulated output distribution and a risk analysis (Files: PowerPoint report & Excel;  
This section relates to Topic 9. Generate the simulated output. When this is done you will need to copy the  simulated data and paste as values over the top. However, do not paste as values over row 8, as this provides  the links to the input and output cells.  
Use the simulated output to undertake a risk analysis. 
 
Section 6: Report (File: PowerPoint report; 
The report should be a standalone document. It should include: 
1. A brief description of the stochastic model (maximum 100 words) 
2. The conceptual model and any assumptions behind the model. 
3. The deterministic decision model copied from the spreadsheet. 
4. The best-case and worst-case scenarios chosen, and a discussion of the consequences. 5. The stochastic decision model copied from the spreadsheet. 
6. Justification for the choice of probability distribution. 
7. Risk analysis report based on the simulation modelling.
 

Unit Learning Outcomes (ULO) 
ULO 1: Conceptualise, formulate and  represent a business problem as a decision  model.
ULO 2: Develop and solve business problems  using advanced decision modelling techniques  such as optimisation, stochastic modelling and  risk analysis in spreadsheets.
ULO 3: Interpret and analyse the results;  investigate the sensitivity of the solutions to  the assumptions of the decision model.
 
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