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Begin your report with a cover page with the following information:
(Your Name)
FIL 241: The Financial Markets and the Coronavirus
(Date)
Introduction: Give a brief summary of what the Coronavirus is (at least two sentences). Provide a short overview of your paper’s main points and how the pandemic impacted the world and financial markets (at least 6 sentences). This section should be at least ½ to ¾ of a page long and does not need to have any specific citations.
The Big Picture: Give an overview of the big picture impact of the Coronavirus on the economy and stock market. Specifically, this section should focus on the impact on the stock market, U.S. unemployment, and U.S. GDP changes. (There is not a specific minimum length for this section; however, please make sure to address each bullet point).
• (1st Paragraph) Using the S&P 500 index as a gauge for the overall stock market, answer the following questions about the stock market’s movements and reactions to the Coronavirus. You may find the following link helpful: https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5EGSPC
o Describe the overall movements in the stock market during 2020 and 2021. When was the level of the S&P 500 index at stock market’s peak during the first quarter of 2020?
o When did the stock market start to decline?
o When did it reach its low point (give the specific date)in 2020?
o What percent decline was seen in the level of the stock market from the peak in the 1st quarter of 2020 to the low point in the entire year of 2020?
o What has the stock market recovery looked like (for example, has it been a slow or rapid recovery)?
o What percent higher or lower is S&P 500 index today (tell what date it is you are getting the information) versus the peak of the market in the 1st quarter of 2020?
• (2nd Paragraph) Describe changes in U.S. unemployment during 2020. The Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles these statistics (https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000) or you may be able to find in WSJ articles.
o Describe the overall movements in unemployment in 2020 and 2021.
o What and when was the high and low unemployment in the US in 2020?
o What is unemployment currently (state the date you get the information)?
o How has the impact on employment varied based on industry (i.e. has unemployment been similar or varied depending on the industry)? You may find this article helpful: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemic-reshapes-u-s-employment-speeding-changes-across-industries-11609243204
• (3rd Paragraph) Describe the impact/changes in US economy and GDP in both the first and second quarters of 2020.
o Describe the change in US GDP in the 1st quarter of 2020. You may find this article helpful: https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-quarter-gdp-us-growth-coronavirus-11588123665?mod=article_inline
o Describe the change in US GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2020. You may find this article helpful: https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-gdp-report-second-quarter-coronavirus-11596061406
o Look at the figure from the St. Louis Federal Reserve on GDP from the 4th quarter of 2019 until present day at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP. Describe how US GDP has performed following the 2nd quarter of 2020 until today.
Days with Big Swings: In this section, describe some of the large swings in the stock market related to the pandemic based on your readings of the following WSJ articles. If the article notes any news items that spurred the movements, make note of those.
• Describe the emotional ups and down as well as the events during the week of March 8-13, 2020 based on the WSJ article “Diary of a Crazy Week in the Markets”. Describe the stock market reaction during this week.https://www.wsj.com/articles/diary-of-a-crazy-week-in-the-markets-11584143715?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1
• Describe the events and stock market reaction of March 16, 2020 based on the WSJ article “The Day Coronavirus Nearly Broke the Financial Markets” https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-day-coronavirus-nearly-broke-the-financial-markets-11589982288?mod=hp_lead_pos5
• Describe the events of March 24, 2020 and stock market reaction based on the WSJ article “Dow Soars More Than 11% In Biggest One-Day Jump Since 1933” https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-3-24-2020-11585012632?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=3
The Government’s Response: In this section, describe major recovery programs initiated by the U.S. Federal government to stimulate the economy. Also provide a commentary on your overall thoughts about these programs, including both the pros AND the cons of these. You may, but do not have to, include quotes or opinions mentioned in news articles in addition to your own personal opinions. This section should be at least ½ to ¾ of a page long and cite at least 3 different government programs/actions/bills using at least 2 different sources and include citations for each source used. Do NOT include programs initiated or primarily operated by the Federal Reserve in this section.
The Federal Reserve’s Response: In this section, describe major recovery programs initiated by the U.S. Federal Reserve to stimulate the U.S. economy. Also provide a commentary on your overall thoughts about these programs, including both the pros AND the cons of these. You may, but do not have to, include quotes or opinions mentioned in news articles in addition to your own personal opinions. This section should be at least 1 to 1 ½ of a page long and cite at 6 different Fed programs/actions using at least 3 different sources and include citations for each source used.
The Federal Reserve and the World: In this section, describe actions by the Federal Reserve and their impact on other countries. Comment on how the Fed’s role in lending to other counties has changed and the impact on the US dollar being a favored currency around the world. This section should be at least ¾ to 1 page long and cite at least 2 different Fedprograms/actions/impacts and include citations for each source used.
Thoughts on the Role of the Federal Reserve: In this section, consider the various actions of the Federal Reserve you have noted in previous sections. In your own words, describe how the role of the Fed and degree of influence by the Fed has changed.What are the good aspects as well as the bad aspects of the changes? Do you think the Fed did too much or too little and why do you think this? In the future, do you think the Fed should continue a similar level of involvement or should it reduce its involvement going forward? You may, but do not have to, include quotes or opinions mentioned in news articles in addition to your own personal opinions. This section should be at least ¾ to 1 ½ of pages long.
Conclusion: In this final section, give a short summary statement of events and responses to the pandemic (3 to 4sentences), give any concluding thoughts, give thoughts on if the US Federal government has done enough to help the US economy (about 2 sentences), and provide your personal outlook for the future (at least 2 sentences). This section should be at least ½ to ¾ of a page long.
Works Cited: Have a page where you list all the articles used and cited in the paper.
Link to summaries of Fed and Government Actions
• Milstein, Erix and David Wessel. 17 December 2021, “What did the Fed do in response to the COVID-19 crisis?” https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/#:~:text=Federal%20funds%20rate%3A%20The%20Fed,of%200%25%20to%200.25%25.
• Clarida, Richard H., Burcu Duygan-Bump, and Chiara Scotti (2021). “The COVID-19 Crisis and the Federal Reserve’s Policy Response,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-035. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.035 .
• International Monetary Fund. 2 July 2021, “Policy responses to COVID-19.” https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19#U
Links to WSJ articles you may find helpful
1. McCabe, Caitlin and Caitlin Ostroff. 12 March 2020. “Stocks Plunge 10% in Dow’s Worst Day Since 1987.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-follow-u-s-markets-lower-11583975524?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1
2. Hoffman, Liz. 14 March 2020. “Diary of a Crazy Week in the Markets.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/diary-of-a-crazy-week-in-the-markets-11584143715?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1
3. Timiraos, Nick. 15 March 2020. “Fed Cuts Rates to Near Zero and Will Relaunch Bond-Buying Program.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-faces-crucial-decisions-to-alleviate-virus-shock-11584303662?mod=searchresults&page=2&pos=3
4. Banerji, Gunjan and Gregory Zuckerman. 16 March 2020. “Why Are Markets So Volatile? It’s Not Just the Coronavirus.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-are-markets-so-volatile-its-not-just-the-coronavirus-11584393165?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1
5. Banerji, Gunjan. 17 March 2020. “Traders Bet on Falling ‘Fear Gauge’.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/traders-bet-on-falling-fear-gauge-11584466439?mod=article_inline
6. Osipovich, Alexander. 18 March 2020. “NYSE to Close Trading Floor After Two Positive Coronavirus Tests.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/nyse-to-temporarily-close-trading-floor-to-slow-coronavirus-11584568565
7. March 18, US Debt grows and likely will continue as government tries to help Americans in need and the economy https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-deficit-set-to-soar-as-government-responds-to-coronavirus-11584568685
8. March 18, Lower interest rates and potential halts to charging interest may help those with student loans https://www.wsj.com/articles/plunging-rates-spell-opportunity-for-student-loan-borrowers-11584536400?mod=hp_lista_pos5
9. March 19, Fed backs money market funds as investors scramble for cash https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-will-backstop-money-market-mutual-funds-amid-coronavirus-11584588654
10. March 19, Video on circuit breakers (15 minute halts in all stock trading) https://www.wsj.com/video/traders-question-circuit-breakers-heres-why/496A1744-F586-4B44-9184-FFB3B802C1A0.html?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2
11. An interesting visual of different major market events over the past 50 years and their impact. https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/black-swan-events/
12. March 25, $2 Trillion Relief Package from Congress, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-senate-democrats-said-to-reach-stimulus-bill-deal-11585113371
13. March 24, Stock market’s 11% rise in a single day https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-3-24-2020-11585012632?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=3
14. March 24, Video on differences in new relief bill vs. that from the Financial Crisis https://www.wsj.com/video/how-coronavirus-rescue-package-differs-from-financial-crisis-bailout/C6BA1189-64EE-480C-A579-9A3187D1C2EA.html
15. March 24, Challenges for hedge fund trades https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hedge-fund-trades-going-haywire-11585048411?mod=cxrecs_join#cxrecs_s
16. March 23, More Fed actions https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-announces-major-expansion-of-market-supports-11584964844?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=5
17. March 26 Video on Federal Reserve Tools. https://www.wsj.com/video/what-the-federal-reserve-can-do-to-fight-recession/D23403CC-088F-472C-848A-814BC1829E74.html
18. March 27 Trying to time the markets for when to invest https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-bear-market-11585301582?tesla=y&mod=article_inline
19. March 27 Washington’s response in pictures https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-fast-the-economy-crashed-and-washington-respondedin-charts-11585334137?mod=hp_lead_pos2
20. March 27 High frequency traders feasting on market volatility https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-frequency-traders-feast-on-volatile-market-11585310401?mod=hp_lead_pos4
21. March 31, A look at winners & losers from the virus and stocks down 20% in 1st quarter https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-11585617395?mod=hp_major_pos1#cxrecs_s
22. March 30, Uncharted Waters for the Fed https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-transformed-jay-powell-leads-central-bank-into-uncharted-waters-11585596210?mod=hp_lead_pos4
23. March 30, Boom for Corporate Bonds with low interest rates https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-investors-buy-into-corporate-bond-surge-11585585858?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1
24. April 1, Investors are amateur epidemiologists now https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-are-all-amateur-epidemiologists-now-11585737355?tesla=y&mod=article_inline
25. April 1, Companies cut 401(k) contributions https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-hit-hard-by-coronavirus-look-to-cut-401-k-contributions-11585746000?mod=hp_lead_pos7
26. April 1, U.S. cementing its role as bank for the whole world https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-is-settling-into-its-role-as-the-worlds-central-bank-11585732095?mod=article_inline
