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QUESTION
Pick two stocks, one from a high growth industry and one from a low growth industry. The two
stocks do not have to be related to each other. The goal of this assignment is to back-test a
stochastic process for stock price using Monte Carlo simulation. Here is a basic set of
instructions for the assignment.
Using the geometric Brownian motion model as the stochastic process describing stock
price behavior, simulate a path for the price of your chosen stocks at the end of each week from
June 25, 2018 (week 1) to August 31, 2018 (week 10). To estimate the input parameters for the
model, use daily closing stock price for 250 trading days ending June 22, 2018. What was the
percent change in the stock price during the ten week period ending June 22, 2018? Using Monte
Carlo simulation, with (a) 10 trials, (b) 100 trials, and (c) 1000 trials, compute the probability of
the stock price following the same trend over the ten weeks ending August 31, 2018 as the trend
during the ten week period ending June 22, 2018.
Produce a one-page, single spaced, typed report, using the following structure:
1. What do you expect to find when you compare the results for (a), (b), and (c)?
2. What do you expect to find when you compare the results of one stock versus that of the
other stock?
3. Describe the model used to forecast changes in stock price.
4. How do the results compare against your hypotheses in 1 and 2 above?
5. How do the results compare against the actual stock price observed at the end of trading
on August 31, 2018?
6. What can we conclude from your findings?
Sample Solutions
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